Cape Canaveral, FL · Forecast accuracy
How close have the wave models been?
Still collecting. Forecasts have been stored since Sep 11, 8:15 AM local time, and 98 forecast hours have been checked against the buoy so far. Day 1 scores fill in after about a day, days 11–16 after about two weeks.
Typical miss, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Wave height forecast vs. what buoy 41113 measured, last 30 days. Lower is better. Bias above zero means the model ran high. Cells with fewer than 12 checked hours say “collecting”.
| Model | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Days 4–5 | Days 6–7 | Days 8–10 | Days 11–16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Météo-France MFWAM forecast page, days 1–9 | collecting (9) | collecting (1) | — | — | — | — | — |
| NOAA GFS-Wave forecast page, after day 9 | 0.3 ft bias +0.3 ft · n 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° | 0.3 ftlowest bias +0.2 ft · n 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ECMWF WAM | 0.4 ft bias +0.4 ft · n 21 | collecting (1) | — | — | — | — | — |
Day-ahead forecasts vs. the buoy, last 7 days
Each model line is what that model predicted about a day in advance (the stored forecast made 12–36 hours ahead, closest to 24). The dark line is what the buoy measured.
Buoy 41113 (measured) Météo-France MFWAM NOAA GFS-Wave NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° ECMWF WAM
Show the chart's data as a table (11 hours)
| Time (local) | Buoy 41113 | Météo-France MFWAM | NOAA GFS-Wave | NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° | ECMWF WAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/11 10pm | — | — | 2.4 ft | 2.2 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 9pm | — | — | 2.2 ft | 2.0 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 8pm | 1.3 ft | 0.9 ft | 2.1 ft | 2.0 ft | 1.8 ft |
| Fri 9/11 7pm | 1.3 ft | — | 2.0 ft | 1.9 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 6pm | 1.3 ft | — | 1.8 ft | 1.7 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 5pm | 1.3 ft | 1.0 ft | 1.7 ft | 1.7 ft | 1.7 ft |
| Fri 9/11 4pm | 1.3 ft | — | 1.7 ft | 1.6 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 3pm | 1.3 ft | — | 1.7 ft | 1.6 ft | — |
| Fri 9/11 2pm | 1.6 ft | 1.0 ft | 1.7 ft | 1.6 ft | 1.8 ft |
| Fri 9/11 11am | 1.3 ft | 1.0 ft | — | — | 1.8 ft |
| Fri 9/11 8am | 1.6 ft | 1.0 ft | — | — | 1.8 ft |
How this is scored
- What's scored is offshore wave height, not the surf. Each model's significant wave height at buoy 41113's own position (Cape Canaveral Nearshore), against what the buoy measured. The forecast page's breaking-height estimate is built on top of these numbers, and nothing measures the surf at the beach, so it can't be scored directly.
- Every stored model run counts. An hour is checked against the buoy reading nearest to it, within 30 minutes.
- Only real forecasts count: hours from before a run started are skipped.
- Typical miss is the average of |forecast − measured|. Hours from the same run are related, so treat the counts as a sample size, not a margin of error.
- The forecast page uses Météo-France MFWAM for days 1–9, then NOAA GFS-Wave. These scores are how that choice gets checked.