Cape Canaveral, FL · Forecast accuracy
How close have the wave models been?
Over days 1–3, the closest model at Cape Canaveral so far is Météo-France MFWAM, typically off by 0.8 ft and running low by 0.8 ft. The furthest is ECMWF WAM, off by 1.3 ft.
Typical miss, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Wave height forecast vs. what buoy 41113 measured, last 30 days. Lower is better. Bias above zero means the model ran high. Cells with fewer than 12 checked hours say “collecting”.
| Model | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Days 4–5 | Days 6–7 | Days 8–10 | Days 11–16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Météo-France MFWAM forecast page, days 1–9 | 0.8 ft bias −0.8 ft · n 355 | 0.8 ftlowest bias −0.8 ft · n 468 | 0.9 ftlowest bias −0.9 ft · n 460 | 0.9 ftlowest bias −0.9 ft · n 896 | 0.8 ftlowest bias −0.7 ft · n 864 | 1.0 ftlowest bias −0.9 ft · n 1155 | — |
| NOAA GFS-Wave forecast page, after day 9 | 0.8 ftlowest bias +0.6 ft · n 2507 | 0.9 ft bias +0.7 ft · n 2621 | 1.0 ft bias +0.9 ft · n 2564 | 1.2 ft bias +1.0 ft · n 4921 | 1.4 ft bias +1.2 ft · n 4693 | 1.5 ft bias +1.2 ft · n 6576 | 1.8 ft bias +0.9 ft · n 11191 |
| NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° | 0.8 ft bias +0.6 ft · n 2606 | 0.9 ft bias +0.7 ft · n 2732 | 1.1 ft bias +0.9 ft · n 2681 | 1.1 ft bias +1.0 ft · n 5152 | 1.3 ft bias +1.1 ft · n 4864 | 1.4 ft bias +1.1 ft · n 6759 | 1.7 ft bias +0.8 ft · n 11468 |
| ECMWF WAM | 1.3 ft bias +1.2 ft · n 889 | 1.3 ft bias +1.2 ft · n 926 | 1.3 ft bias +1.2 ft · n 902 | 1.5 ft bias +1.3 ft · n 1732 | 1.7 ft bias +1.5 ft · n 1636 | 1.6 ft bias +1.3 ft · n 2274 | 1.6 ftlowest bias +0.8 ft · n 3249 |
Day-ahead forecasts vs. the buoy, last 7 days
Each model line is what that model predicted about a day in advance (the stored forecast made 12–36 hours ahead, closest to 24). The dark line is what the buoy measured.
Buoy 41113 (measured) Météo-France MFWAM NOAA GFS-Wave NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° ECMWF WAM
Show the chart's data as a table (168 hours)
| Time (local) | Buoy 41113 | Météo-France MFWAM | NOAA GFS-Wave | NOAA GFS-Wave 0.25° | ECMWF WAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/27 11pm | — | 5.2 ft | 10.0 ft | 8.8 ft | 10.4 ft |
| Tue 10/27 10pm | 6.6 ft | — | 9.6 ft | 8.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 9pm | 6.6 ft | — | 9.3 ft | 8.5 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 8pm | 6.6 ft | 5.0 ft | 9.4 ft | 8.4 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Tue 10/27 7pm | 6.2 ft | — | 9.2 ft | 8.3 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 6pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.9 ft | 8.1 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 5pm | 5.2 ft | 4.9 ft | 8.7 ft | 8.0 ft | 10.5 ft |
| Tue 10/27 4pm | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 3pm | 4.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 2pm | 5.6 ft | 4.8 ft | 8.2 ft | 7.5 ft | 10.1 ft |
| Tue 10/27 1pm | 5.9 ft | — | 8.1 ft | 7.5 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 12pm | 6.2 ft | — | 8.2 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 11am | 6.6 ft | 4.7 ft | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | 9.7 ft |
| Tue 10/27 10am | 6.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 9am | 6.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 8am | 6.2 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | 9.8 ft |
| Tue 10/27 7am | 6.6 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 6am | 5.9 ft | — | 8.2 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 5am | 5.6 ft | 4.6 ft | 8.1 ft | 7.8 ft | 10.0 ft |
| Tue 10/27 4am | 5.2 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 3am | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 2am | 5.2 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.5 ft | 7.9 ft | 10.0 ft |
| Tue 10/27 1am | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Tue 10/27 12am | 5.9 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 8.0 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 11pm | 5.9 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.4 ft | 7.8 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 10pm | 5.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 9pm | 6.2 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 8.1 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 8pm | 6.6 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 7pm | 5.9 ft | — | 8.2 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 6pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.1 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 5pm | 5.6 ft | 4.7 ft | 8.5 ft | 8.0 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 4pm | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 8.0 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 3pm | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 8.1 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 2pm | 5.6 ft | 4.7 ft | 8.6 ft | 8.1 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 1pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.6 ft | 8.1 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 12pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.7 ft | 8.0 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 11am | 6.2 ft | 4.5 ft | 9.0 ft | 8.3 ft | 10.0 ft |
| Mon 10/26 10am | 6.6 ft | — | 9.0 ft | 8.5 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 9am | 6.6 ft | — | 8.9 ft | 8.3 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 8am | 6.9 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.9 ft | 8.3 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 7am | 6.6 ft | — | 9.0 ft | 8.3 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 6am | 6.2 ft | — | 9.0 ft | 8.4 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 5am | 5.9 ft | 4.6 ft | 9.1 ft | 8.3 ft | 10.4 ft |
| Mon 10/26 4am | 5.9 ft | — | 9.2 ft | 8.4 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 3am | 4.9 ft | — | 9.4 ft | 8.6 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 2am | 5.2 ft | 4.6 ft | 9.3 ft | 8.6 ft | 10.2 ft |
| Mon 10/26 1am | 5.2 ft | — | 9.1 ft | 8.5 ft | — |
| Mon 10/26 12am | 5.9 ft | — | 8.9 ft | 8.4 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 11pm | 5.9 ft | 4.3 ft | 9.0 ft | 8.5 ft | 9.8 ft |
| Sun 10/25 10pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.7 ft | 8.3 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 9pm | 5.6 ft | — | 8.2 ft | 8.0 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 8pm | 5.2 ft | 4.1 ft | 8.1 ft | 7.9 ft | 8.7 ft |
| Sun 10/25 7pm | 5.2 ft | — | 7.9 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 6pm | 5.2 ft | — | 7.7 ft | 7.5 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 5pm | 4.9 ft | 3.9 ft | 7.7 ft | 7.4 ft | 8.9 ft |
| Sun 10/25 4pm | 4.9 ft | — | 7.7 ft | 7.4 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 3pm | 4.6 ft | — | 7.8 ft | 7.4 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 2pm | 4.9 ft | 4.4 ft | 7.9 ft | 7.5 ft | 9.1 ft |
| Sun 10/25 1pm | 4.6 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 12pm | 5.2 ft | — | 8.5 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 11am | 5.6 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | 9.6 ft |
| Sun 10/25 10am | 5.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 9am | 5.9 ft | — | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 8am | 6.6 ft | 4.5 ft | 8.3 ft | 7.9 ft | 10.1 ft |
| Sun 10/25 7am | 6.6 ft | — | 8.1 ft | 7.8 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 6am | 6.2 ft | — | 8.1 ft | 7.7 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 5am | 5.9 ft | 4.5 ft | 7.6 ft | 7.5 ft | 9.8 ft |
| Sun 10/25 4am | 5.6 ft | — | 7.4 ft | 7.4 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 3am | 5.2 ft | — | 7.2 ft | 7.2 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 2am | 4.6 ft | 4.1 ft | 6.8 ft | 7.0 ft | 8.3 ft |
| Sun 10/25 1am | 3.9 ft | — | 6.3 ft | 6.6 ft | — |
| Sun 10/25 12am | 3.9 ft | — | 5.8 ft | 6.2 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 11pm | 3.6 ft | 3.5 ft | 5.1 ft | 5.5 ft | 6.5 ft |
| Sat 10/24 10pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.6 ft | 5.1 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 9pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 8pm | 3.3 ft | 3.0 ft | 3.9 ft | 4.3 ft | 5.5 ft |
| Sat 10/24 7pm | 3.6 ft | — | 3.6 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 6pm | 3.6 ft | — | 3.5 ft | 3.7 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 5pm | 3.6 ft | 2.8 ft | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.9 ft |
| Sat 10/24 4pm | 3.3 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 3pm | 3.3 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 4.0 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 2pm | 3.3 ft | 2.3 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.0 ft | 4.2 ft |
| Sat 10/24 1pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 3.8 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 12pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 11am | 3.0 ft | 2.4 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.2 ft |
| Sat 10/24 10am | 3.3 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 9am | 3.6 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 8am | 3.9 ft | 2.2 ft | 3.9 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.4 ft |
| Sat 10/24 7am | 4.3 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 6am | 3.9 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 5am | 3.9 ft | 2.2 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.7 ft |
| Sat 10/24 4am | 3.9 ft | — | 4.0 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 3am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 2am | 3.6 ft | 2.4 ft | 4.5 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.7 ft |
| Sat 10/24 1am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.6 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Sat 10/24 12am | 3.3 ft | — | 4.7 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 11pm | 3.3 ft | 2.6 ft | 4.4 ft | 4.5 ft | 4.7 ft |
| Fri 10/23 10pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 9pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.3 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 8pm | 3.0 ft | 2.6 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.7 ft |
| Fri 10/23 7pm | 2.6 ft | — | 4.0 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 6pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.0 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 5pm | 3.0 ft | 2.4 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.0 ft | 4.4 ft |
| Fri 10/23 4pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 3pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 2pm | 3.0 ft | 2.5 ft | 3.8 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.7 ft |
| Fri 10/23 1pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 12pm | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 11am | 2.6 ft | 2.6 ft | 3.7 ft | 3.8 ft | 4.8 ft |
| Fri 10/23 10am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 3.8 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 9am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.8 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 8am | 3.0 ft | 2.4 ft | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | 4.9 ft |
| Fri 10/23 7am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 3.9 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 6am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.0 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 5am | 3.0 ft | 2.4 ft | 4.0 ft | 4.0 ft | 5.1 ft |
| Fri 10/23 4am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 3am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.8 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 2am | 3.3 ft | 2.6 ft | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | 5.2 ft |
| Fri 10/23 1am | 3.0 ft | — | 3.9 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Fri 10/23 12am | 3.0 ft | — | 4.0 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 11pm | 3.3 ft | 2.6 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.1 ft | 5.3 ft |
| Thu 10/22 10pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.1 ft | 4.1 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 9pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.2 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 8pm | 3.0 ft | 2.6 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.2 ft | 5.3 ft |
| Thu 10/22 7pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.1 ft | 4.2 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 6pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.1 ft | 4.2 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 5pm | 3.3 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.1 ft | 4.2 ft | 5.3 ft |
| Thu 10/22 4pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.2 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 3pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.3 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 2pm | 3.0 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.3 ft | 5.4 ft |
| Thu 10/22 1pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.3 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 12pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 11am | 3.0 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.4 ft | 4.4 ft | 5.6 ft |
| Thu 10/22 10am | 3.0 ft | — | 4.5 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 9am | 3.3 ft | — | 4.5 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 8am | 3.3 ft | 2.6 ft | 4.5 ft | 4.5 ft | 5.8 ft |
| Thu 10/22 7am | 3.0 ft | — | 4.6 ft | 4.6 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 6am | 3.3 ft | — | 4.7 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 5am | 3.6 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.9 ft | 4.7 ft | 5.6 ft |
| Thu 10/22 4am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.5 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 3am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.5 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 2am | 3.6 ft | 2.9 ft | 4.5 ft | 4.6 ft | 5.8 ft |
| Thu 10/22 1am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.6 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Thu 10/22 12am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.6 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 11pm | 3.6 ft | 3.0 ft | 4.4 ft | 4.5 ft | 6.0 ft |
| Wed 10/21 10pm | 3.6 ft | — | 4.4 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 9pm | 3.6 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 8pm | 3.9 ft | 3.0 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | 5.9 ft |
| Wed 10/21 7pm | 3.9 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 6pm | 3.6 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 5pm | 3.6 ft | 2.9 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.4 ft | 5.6 ft |
| Wed 10/21 4pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 3pm | 3.3 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 2pm | 3.3 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.2 ft | 4.4 ft | 5.7 ft |
| Wed 10/21 1pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 12pm | 3.0 ft | — | 4.2 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 11am | 3.0 ft | 2.8 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.3 ft | 5.6 ft |
| Wed 10/21 10am | 3.0 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.4 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 9am | 3.0 ft | — | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 8am | 3.3 ft | 2.7 ft | 4.3 ft | 4.5 ft | 5.8 ft |
| Wed 10/21 7am | 3.3 ft | — | 4.4 ft | 4.6 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 6am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.5 ft | 4.7 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 5am | 3.6 ft | 2.9 ft | 4.7 ft | 4.7 ft | 5.9 ft |
| Wed 10/21 4am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.7 ft | 4.8 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 3am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.7 ft | 4.9 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 2am | 3.6 ft | 3.0 ft | 4.9 ft | 4.9 ft | 6.0 ft |
| Wed 10/21 1am | 3.6 ft | — | 4.9 ft | 5.1 ft | — |
| Wed 10/21 12am | 3.6 ft | — | 5.1 ft | 5.1 ft | — |
How this is scored
- What's scored is offshore wave height, not the surf. Each model's significant wave height at buoy 41113's own position (Cape Canaveral Nearshore), against what the buoy measured. The forecast page's breaking-height estimate is built on top of these numbers, and nothing measures the surf at the beach, so it can't be scored directly.
- Every stored model run counts. An hour is checked against the buoy reading nearest to it, within 30 minutes.
- Only real forecasts count: hours from before a run started are skipped.
- Typical miss is the average of |forecast − measured|. Hours from the same run are related, so treat the counts as a sample size, not a margin of error.
- The forecast page uses Météo-France MFWAM for days 1–9, then NOAA GFS-Wave. These scores are how that choice gets checked.